About US
Black Swan Capital is an independent minded currency advisory firm established to provide subscription-based services to help institutions and retail clientele throughout the globe profit while trading in currency options and spot markets.
We look to establish key business and distribution relationships with quality small to medium sized investment institutions.
Our commitment is to deliver detailed currency trade recommendations that our clients understand and can easily execute through their brokers. We outline the reasons to enter a trade and define the risk. We tell subscribers when to exit and why.
President and Chief Trading Officer
John (Jack) Ross Crooks Jr
Mr. Crooks has close to 20 years experience in generating profits for clients and subscribers in the currency, options and futures arena. Jack is a seasoned investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research.
Jack was founder and president of Black Swan Capital. Jack also was also founder of Ross International Asset Management and General Manager of Plexus Trading, a discretionary money management firm, Ross International specialized in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients.
As General Manager and partner of Plexus Trading, he specialized in currency futures and commodities trading. In addition, Mr. Crooks was Chief Currency and Futures Strategist of M2 Futures Inc., an investment boutique headquartered in Chicago. He also held the position of Vice President of Global Strategic Research for an international investment boutique where he was responsible for providing daily advice and global strategy analysis.
Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack has worked in various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics. Most recently he has been published in Asian Times and Futures Magazine.
Jack received his Bachelor of Science degree from Florida State University in 1980 and Masters of Business Administration degree is from the University of North Texas in 1983. He has held various securities licenses.
The Black Swan Story
To us, the Black Swan goes to the heart of our belief that no matter how sophisticated traders perceive themselves to be, no matter how elegantly traders believe they have “modeled the market,” no matter how strong their past performance has been, there is an event lingering out there that cannot be predicted—a black swan event.
It’s a market move that invalidates beliefs among the consensus.
This idea of a “Black Swan event” flows from the renowned German philosopher Karl Popper. In his famous essay entitled, The Problem of Induction, Popper said:
“A scientific idea can never be proven true, because no matter how many observations seem to agree with it, it may still be wrong.”
He used the simple example of swans to illustrate his point. For many years people believed all swans were white. Millions of observations of white swans seemingly “proved” the theory that, in fact, all swans were white. Yet, it was the discovery of a single black swan, living in Australia, which invalidated a theory based on millions of prior observations.
As speculators, we find Popper’s logic extremely poignant. It reminds us: There is no Holy Grail. It’s one of our core beliefs. And it naturally leads us to two primary conclusions about the market.
- Neither price nor the degree of risk in the market can be perfectly forecasted.
- Trading is ultimately a probability bet.
You don’t need to know, or believe you can forecast, in order to make money in markets. But we believe you must consistently apply a systematic approach (grounded in human nature) in order to be successful in markets over time.